Pascals Wager
Pascal's wager
Pascal's wager is a cost-benefit analysis of Christianity.
| You believe that Yahweh exists | You don't believe Yahweh exists | |
|---|---|---|
| Yahweh exists | Eternal bliss (infinite positive benefit | Eternal damnation (infinite negative benefit) |
| Yahweh doesn't exist | You die, nothing happens | You die, nothing happens |
Next, you assign probabilities to Yahweh's existence and calculate the expected value. Because of the positive and negative infinities, any non-zero probability for Yahweh's existence results in the conclusion that you would be better off believing.
But there are so holes in this argument so big you could fling a galaxy through them.
Yahweh might be an asshole. He might fling you into hell even if you do believe in him.
There might not be an infinite afterlife. The wager assumes the existence of an infinte heaven and hell and assumes that belief in Yahweh is the single thing that determines which one you go to. There might be no afterlife at all, there might only be heaven, or only hell, and both might not be infinite.
Yahweh is supposed to be able to see our thoughts. If he knows we don't 'really' believe but are just 'believing' to try and hedge our bets, he might throw us into hell anyway.
You can't will belief. If you don't believe in something, you can't just turn on that belief because you want to get a good afterlife. You can pretend to believe, and some people might be able to convince themselves of the belief after a sufficient amount of reinforcement.
You can make the same argument for all religions/afterlife possibilities. You would need to believe in all of them. And some are mutually contradictory, so you have to choose which ones to take.
One of the key things about Pascals wager is that the two belief systems are assumed to have equal value if Yahweh in fact doens't exist. But this isn't true. There is a definite cost to religion. Think of all the time and money devoted to pointless prayer & proselytising. Think of the inquisition, the witch-trials, the slavery, misogyny, oppression that has been done for religion. Look at 9/11, the middle east & the current situation in Iraq. Look at all the poverty in the third world because christianity's converts are taught that birth control is immoral. Look at half of the Christians in the US who believe the Rapture is imminent and welcome social &environmental breakdown as a sign of the coming apocalpse (and who even want to hasten it's arrival). Look at all the Christians who believe that we shouldn't care about the environment because God gave us the world's resources to use and we are all leaving for heaven shortly anyway. Nevermind the enormous guilt that all Christians seem to have from being constantly told that they are fallen, sinful etc.