Muslim creationism part 3

This is part of a series about the book “The Creation of the Universe” by Adnan Oktar. View Part 1 and Part 2.

Chapter 2: The equilibrium in the explosion

This sounds like the title of an episode of Bones, but is actually just a long variation on the fine tuning argument (as, in fact are many later chapters). The argument is essentially that if things during the big bang were just a tiny bit different, we would not exist, and therefore things must have been deliberately and consciously arranged so that they would eventually produce a universe in which we could exist. The answer to that is the anthropic principle (which Oktar quotes in the introduction but evidently doesn’t fully understand). If the universe had been a tiny bit different during the big bang, then we wouldn’t be here to wonder about it. So not only should we not be surprised that things happened in such a way that our universe is capable of supporting life, we should expect it.

He presents the following arguments:

• If the speed of expansion was slower or faster, the universe might have already re-collapsed, or might be more spread out than it is now.
• If the strengths of the 4 fundamental forces were different, chemistry as we know it might not be possible

Both of these assume that these things are all independent variables and can be varied within an infinite range. Looked at it that way, it does seems amazing that they all happen to have values which are compatible with life. However, there is no basis for assuming either independence or that they can take on an infinite range of values. For instance, we know electromagnetism and the weak nuclear force are actually just two manifestations of the same force (Electroweak). Thus, these are intimately related and cannot vary freely. Although we don’t yet know all the details, it is entirely possible the the other forces are equally constrained.

Oktar next looks at the probability of the universe having the values we see. He cites some calculations Roger Penrose did on this in 1989 and quotes it as 10¹⁰¹²³. This is pretty big odds and so he just concludes that it is impossible to happen by chance. In fact, he says that in mathematics, odds of 1 in 10⁵⁰ means “zero probability” (this is actually not true) so the even lower probability given by Penrose are completely impossible. There are two problems with using Roger Penrose’s probability in this way. The first is that again Roger Penrose assumed all these values were infinitely free to vary independently of each other, which almost certainly is not the case. And secondly, trying to estimate the probabilities of things that have already happened like this isn’t valid. The odds that Roger Penrose calculates are the odds of us being able to predict in advance what all the parameters of the universe are assuming they are free to vary infinitely and independently, not the odds of the universe actually having these properties.

To give you an example of the difference, imagine I have a pack of cards. I shuffle and deal one card at random. It is the Queen of hearts. The odds of me selecting that card were 1 in 52. I deal another – the six of spades. The odds of me selecting that card were 1 in 51, and the odds of me selecting the two in that sequence were 1 in 2652 (52 51). I deal a third card – the nine of clubs. The odds of me picking it were 1 in 50, and the odds of this particular two card sequence were 1 in 132,600 (2652 50). If I deal another two cards to make a poker hand, the odds of me having dealt that particular hand are approximately 1 in 311 million. If I continue to deal out another three cards, I’m up to odds of about 1 in 1.3 quadrillion (1.3 x 10¹⁵). If I deal another 5 cards to make a hand for Bridge (13 cards), the odds of me getting those particular 13 cards are 1 in 3.9 x 10²¹. If I keep dealing cards, at the point I have dealt 33 cards, I have reached odds of 1 in 6.6 x 10⁵⁰. Adnan Oktar says this is something that has zero probability and thus can never happen by chance. And yet I just did it in less than one minute with a pack of cards. If you finish dealing out the deck, the odds that you dealt them in that particular order are 1 in 8 x 10⁶⁷.

There are many other physical processes like this. If you hit a golf ball, it will land on a particular blade of grass. The odds that you could have predicted in advance which blade of grass are extremely low, but it hand to land somewhere. Likewise, if you pick up a grain of sand from a beach, it would be impossible to predict in advance which of the billions of grains it might be that you chose – and yet, you picked one up. So it is with the universe. We may not have been able to predict in advance what the values would be for all the properties of the universe, yet it inevitable had to have some set of values. And the anthropic principle explains why those properties had to be values that are compatible for life – if they weren’t we wouldn’t be here to wonder about it!